This past weekend I watched a clip from Bloomberg with an interview of a fellow in Ireland who made his first investment ever. He took his entire $300 savings and bought two shares of GameStop. His rationale was that someone had given him a tip. I hope it works out for him. Now don’t get […] Read the full article…
In Part 2, we reviewed economic data and saw that the recovery in aggregate for the US has been very strong. This is not to say all industries have recovered. Still, there are concerns in particular with small business and continuing and new unemployment claims. Let’s turn attention now to the market valuations and discuss […] Read the full article…
We are roughly six months into the market correction for Coronavirus. Over the next three posts, I will provide a market outlook. In part 1, we will look the impact on stock earnings and returns. In part 2, we will review the current state of the economy and relative value of equity market segments. In […] Read the full article…
• US stock market returns for 2020 by sector have ranged from -38% (energy) to +18% (tech). • Sector returns are correlated with estimated earnings growth for 2020 • Current forecasts for earnings are highly uncertain given pandemic and lack of company guidance • For these reasons, we are keenly focused on earnings reports that […] Read the full article…
Stock market uncertainty is as high as I can ever recall. The pandemic, economic shut-down and civil unrest have all hit at the same time. Still, the US stock market is within 5% of it’s all-time high from February. How can this be possible? Puzzling. Let’s break it down. Below I outline the top 3 […] Read the full article…
• We use fundamental analysis to measure relative attractiveness • The US utilities and consumer staples sectors look expensive • US value stocks and the financial sector look relatively cheap • Emerging market equities continue to look like very cheap relative their growth Valuation Method The method used here is based on fundamental analysis. We […] Read the full article…